Other Newspapers' Opinions: Staying on course
Friday, November 28, 2008 10:40 AM PST
The economy does not look exactly rosy now, but according to state economists, Oregon can expect to have more and more general fund resources for the state government in the coming years. A table in the latest revenue forecast, which came out last week, makes this clear.
The news about the forecast was dominated by the change from the last forecast in September, and that change was for the worse. But in terms of comparing changes in revenue, not changes in forecasts, things don’t look half bad for the state.
For instance, during the current biennium, Oregon has general fund resources of $13.8 billion. In the coming biennium, 2009-11, general fund revenue will rise to $14.7 billion, according to the current forecast.
The biennium after that, in 2011-13, following a presumed recovery, general fund revenue is estimated to be an even $17 billion. This will be followed by general fund resources of $19.4 billion in 2013-15, which is as far as the forecast goes.
There is concern, of course, that demands for state spending will grow even faster than the already brisk increases in available resources. The answer is to hold spending in line and not let it get ahead of what’s available.
Leaders of the legislature — among them Senate President Peter Courtney — have expressed themselves as very worried about the budgeting task this next legislative session. Their worry can be allayed only by a firm resolve not to spend more money than the increased funds available.
If legislators say that can’t be done, they will have to explain why not. And if it’s a question of commitments already made, those commitments will have to be re-examined.
Last week’s forecast predicted job losses in all sectors of the Oregon economy except two: health care and government.
That’s the forecast. But it’s not predestination. Government payrolls may have to be trimmed to keep spending in line, in the same way that industry and business are having to curtail employment during times when resources fall short.
— The (Albany) Democrat Herald
