Mannix measure means more prisons

Sunday, October 14, 2007 1:47 AM PDT

EUGENE (AP) — A measure to require minimum sentences for drug and property crimes could put 4,000 to 6,000 more Oregonians behind bars, a study given to state lawmakers says.

The measure is sponsored by Kevin Mannix, a former lawmaker and Republican governor candidate who wrote 1994’s Measure 11, a corresponding measure for more serious crimes.

His new measure is expected to be on the ballot in 2008. It would require minimum sentences of 14 to 36 months for a host of drug and property crimes. The projections were drawn up by the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission at lawmakers’ request and released Thursday. The commission said inmate populations would rise by about a third.

The current prison population is more than 13,000.

Such an increase would require the construction of three more prisons on the scale of the 1,700-person Junction City lockup the state plans to open in 2012.

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‘‘We aren’t going to be able to build prisons fast enough to house them,’’ said Sen. Vicki Walker of Eugene.

Craig Prins, executive director of the Criminal Justice Commission and author of the report, said one variable is how prosecutors use such a new measure.

He said that Measure 11, for example, had an unexpected impact on plea bargaining. After the mandatory minimum sentences went into effect, suspects were much more apt to agree to plea bargains.

Mannix questioned some assumptions of the study but called it an honest attempt to determine the impact of his measure.

He said the cost, estimated at $400 million, is a fraction of future budget growth and an increase in state spending on par with recently stepped up appropriations for such areas as education.

‘‘I’d say, let’s embrace that figure,’’ he said.

Mannix has submitted what appear to be enough signatures to put the measure on the November 2008 ballot, and he has nine months to gather more signatures.

Mannix described what he says ordinary Oregonians think about thieves and burglars: ‘‘Should they get probation? I don’t think so. Fourteen months? That sounds pretty good.’’

But David Rogers of the Partnership for Safety and Justice disagreed, saying the public has begun grappling with the costs of tough sentencing. ‘‘I think that Mannix is actually out of touch with the public on this,’’ said Rogers.